Kpler analyst suspects some Gulf states may be paying Iran 10–20% of oil cargo value for safe passage through Hormuz

Some Gulf countries may be quietly paying Iran for safe passage of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Michelle Brohard, Kpler’s head of policy and geopolitical risk.

“I suspect there is a toll that’s being paid,” Brohard said, suggesting the payments could amount to 10% or even 20% of cargo value. No public evidence has confirmed that such arrangements exist.

The speculation comes as Middle East crude exports have recovered toward pre-war levels while Brent remains around $100 a barrel. High freight, insurance and ship-to-ship transfer costs are also keeping delivered oil prices elevated.