China's crude imports fall nearly 50% from pre-war levels, helping cushion oil markets as Middle East conflict disrupts supply

China has cut crude oil imports by nearly 50% from pre-war levels, helping cushion global oil markets amid severe energy shocks linked to conflict in the Middle East and turmoil at the Strait of Hormuz, according to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol. The country is also drawing on strategic reserves, diversified supply channels and expanding renewable capacity to help stabilize markets.

Chinese customs data show crude imports fell 15.3% year on year in the first nine months of 2026, to 358 million tonnes. The decline reflects a structural shift underpinned by peak oil consumption and rapid advances in green energy, the data show. Chen Shouhai of China University of Petroleum said the drop instead reflects a cyclical inventory correction, not a reversal in demand, and forecast a gradual decline in total imports over the next three to five years.

Nicholas Wagner of the World Economic Forum said China’s energy reserves and fast-growing renewable sector have shielded it from Middle East price shocks, adding that policymakers would take note of the lessons. National Energy Administration data show China’s primary energy production reached a record 5.13 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent in 2025, lifting its energy self-sufficiency rate to 84.4%. In the first half of 2026, total power generation capacity exceeded 4 billion kilowatts, with non-fossil energy accounting for 62%.

Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air said China’s exports of batteries, wind turbines, electric vehicles and solar panels helped avoid 374 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions globally in 2025.