IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% as AI investment offsets part of Middle East war's energy shock

The International Monetary Fund said Tuesday the global economy will slow less than previously expected this year, citing resilience to the energy shock from the Middle East war and strong investment in artificial intelligence.

The IMF raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.0% in July, while keeping its 2027 projection at 3.4%. It said AI-related investment has supported growth in several advanced economies and countries supplying technology hardware.

The fund warned, however, that the recovery is increasingly uneven. Energy-importing and lower-income economies remain more exposed to high fuel and food prices, limited policy buffers and further supply disruptions.

The IMF said only 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 in April, reflecting the widening gap between economies benefiting from the AI boom and those largely outside the technology value chain.

It also warned that prolonged war, higher oil prices, rising borrowing costs and a possible reversal in AI investment could weaken the outlook. The IMF expects global inflation to average 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.