Poll puts Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula at 46.8% to 45.9%, but the margin of error keeps Brazil’s Oct. 25 runoff a toss-up

A Cnt/Mda poll released Friday puts Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 46.8% to 45.9%, before the Oct. 25 runoff. The poll’s margin of error is 2 percentage points, and similar results from Quaest and Datafolha have led experts to describe the race as a toss-up.

Although the results fall within the margin of error, the surveys point to a difficult political climate for Lula, who was projected to win easily just a month ago. Flavio Bolsonaro, the 42-year-old son of a former president, received the most votes in the first round on Oct. 4. His campaign has focused on cracking down on crime and drug trafficking and cutting taxes; a victory would align him with conservative leaders close to U.S. President Donald Trump.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth, non-consecutive term. He recently secured a major social reform victory after Congress approved an amendment granting workers two paid days off a week.

The election comes as voters in Latin America’s largest economy face cost-of-living concerns and crime, against the backdrop of a regional shift to the right.