Arab voters could help decide whether Netanyahu loses power in next week’s Israeli election, even as rival Gadi Eisenkot rejects a governing alliance with Arab parties

Arab voters in Israel could help determine the outcome of next week’s election, as community leaders mobilize against what the post describes as the country’s most right-wing government in its history. The Arab minority accounts for 21% of the population, and higher turnout could strengthen parties helping Benjamin Netanyahu’s opponents seek a parliamentary majority.

Polls give Gadi Eisenkot’s alliance of centrist, right-wing and left-wing parties 52 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 50 for Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist camp. The United Arab List is projected to win five seats and the Joint List eight, leaving Eisenkot dependent on additional support—potentially through Arab parties joining a coalition or backing a minority administration.

Mansour Abbas told Reuters that they can ensure the formation of a “new government of change,” with objectives including ending wars, halting settlement expansion, tackling settler violence and improving security. Eisenkot, a former military chief leading the rival bloc, has rejected a governing alliance with Arab parties. He has pointed to their refusal to designate Hamas a terrorist organization and said on a podcast that he would not align himself with any Arab party.

The Stat-Net Research Institute forecasts Arab turnout at 63%, up from 56% in 2022. Organizers are drawing on anger over Netanyahu’s government and worsening crime in Arab communities. Netanyahu’s campaign has circulated manipulated images and AI-generated videos portraying opponents alongside Arab leaders to influence the contest.

Ahmad Tibi, a Joint List leader, said the alliance could back an Eisenkot administration on establishing an official inquiry into October 7. He said its top priority was removing the extreme right-wing government of Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir. If no government is formed, another election could be triggered in 2027, leaving Netanyahu in office during the intervening deadlock.