Former U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan says Iran war was a ‘folly’ and only a nuclear deal can block a bomb

Former U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the war with Iran was “a folly from the start” and argued that military strikes cannot permanently eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program.

“You cannot actually solve the Iranian nuclear program once and for all without a nuclear deal of some kind,” Sullivan said. He argued that bombing could set the program back but would leave Iran with enriched uranium, centrifuges and nuclear scientists. “The only way to get a verifiable block on Iran’s pathway to nuclear weapons is through a deal.”

Sullivan also said the conflict had exposed a divergence between U.S. and Israeli interests. He accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of wanting a “forever war” with Iran and said disruption to the Strait of Hormuz imposed significant costs on Americans that Israel did not face in the same way.

On Ukraine, Sullivan said ending Western assistance would not simply end the fighting. “If Ukraine just stops fighting or the world stops helping Ukraine fight, it’s the end of Ukraine. If Russia stops fighting, it’s just the end of the war,” he said.

Sullivan argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted more than control of four Ukrainian regions or a neutral Ukraine. “He wants a neutered Ukraine,” Sullivan said, describing Moscow’s objective as leaving the country unable to function as a viable and secure state.

He also defended the Biden administration’s NATO record, saying nine allies were spending at least 2% of GDP on defense when Donald Trump left office after his first term, compared with 23 when Joe Biden left office.

On U.S. competition with China in the Western Hemisphere, Sullivan warned that replacing Chinese influence with an American form of “neocolonialism” would ultimately damage U.S. interests.