Iran’s seaborne oil revenue could vanish by mid-December under U.S. blockade, while Tehran may cut non-military spending and maintain or raise military budgets

Energy intelligence firm Kpler says Iran’s seaborne oil revenue could disappear by mid-December as a U.S. naval blockade depletes the country’s remaining floating crude inventory. The blockade has already cost Iran an estimated $25 billion in oil income, according to the post.

Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and energy analyst at Eurasia Group, said there is a broad expectation that Tehran will sharply reduce non-military spending while maintaining or even increasing military budgets. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps draws revenue from smuggling, black-market commerce and sanctions-evasion networks, which expand when sanctions tighten.

Brew said the test will come in March, when Iran’s new fiscal year begins and the government must reconcile its budget with dramatically lower oil income. He warned that spending cuts could bring “economic unrest, potentially even economic turmoil.”