Axios: Trump may be more inclined to order major Iran strike if Republicans lose badly in midterms

President Donald Trump may become more inclined to authorize a major military operation against Iran if Republicans suffer heavy losses in next week’s midterm elections, a U.S. official told Axios, as Qatari mediators race to revive stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

“If he feels embarrassed or disenfranchised, he will do something bold,” the official said, adding that Iranian officials are being told their best opportunity to reach an agreement with Trump is before the election.

A White House official pushed back on that assessment, telling Axios that the midterm results would not factor into Trump’s decisions on Iran.

The report comes as Qatari mediators intensify efforts to prevent renewed fighting. They spent more than 12 hours in Tehran on Friday while maintaining regular contact with the White House, according to a diplomatic source.

The source described the discussions as showing “positive progress,” but no agreement has been announced. Talks are expected to continue in Doha.

Washington is pressing Iran for nuclear concessions, while Tehran wants the U.S. to lift its naval blockade, release frozen Iranian funds and allow greater oil exports before making major concessions of its own.

Axios reported that Trump’s advisers remain divided. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are skeptical that a durable nuclear agreement can be reached with Iran’s current government and favor further pressure, including possible military action. Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner favor giving negotiations another chance.

Trump has already said the U.S. will not launch a new attack before the Nov. 3 elections, while keeping open the possibility of expanded military action afterward if diplomacy fails.