IISS says Iran war exposed major gaps in Gulf states’ trillion-dollar defence systems despite intercepting most attacks
Gulf states will need to overhaul parts of their defence architecture after the war with Iran exposed major weaknesses in systems built around costly U.S.-supplied weapons and American security guarantees, according to a new International Institute for Strategic Studies report.
The IISS study says that in the weeks before the April 8 ceasefire, 12 regional states, most of them in the Gulf, faced 4,670 Iranian one-way attack drones and more than 1,400 ballistic missiles. Nearly half of the attacks were directed at the United Arab Emirates.
Most of the incoming weapons were intercepted, and the IISS assessment says Gulf air and missile defences generally performed well. But the conflict exposed major problems of cost, sustainability and integration, particularly when expensive interceptors were used against much cheaper drones and missiles.
One estimate cited in the report puts damage to energy infrastructure at as much as $58 billion.
The IISS identified several broader weaknesses: heavy dependence on U.S.-supplied air- and missile-defence systems and munitions, incomplete regional defence integration, shortages in minesweeping capability and maritime awareness, and limited long-range retaliatory options.
The report argues that the war challenged a longstanding Gulf assumption that extensive purchases of U.S. weapons and the presence of American forces would provide sufficient protection in a major regional conflict.
At the same time, the IISS says U.S. systems remain indispensable to Gulf defence because of their performance and the lack of credible alternatives, even as regional governments reassess how heavily they should depend on Washington.
The report also warns that any major reduction or withdrawal of U.S. forces could be portrayed by Tehran as a strategic victory, complicating Gulf efforts to balance deterrence, military self-reliance and continued cooperation with the United States.