Democrats lead Republicans nationally ahead of U.S. midterms as polling shows competitive Senate map

Democrats hold a clear national advantage over Republicans heading into Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections, with voters focused heavily on the economy and the cost of living as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings remain weak.

The RealClearPolling average covering surveys conducted through October 30 put Democrats at 51.8% on the generic congressional ballot and Republicans at 43.3%, an 8.5-point Democratic advantage.

NBC News’ final poll showed Democrats ahead 52% to 45%, while Emerson College Polling put the margin at 52% to 42%. A Reuters/Ipsos survey of likely voters also found Democrats leading 53% to 44%.

Economic dissatisfaction has weighed on Republicans. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 73% of respondents said the cost of living was heading in the wrong direction, while Trump’s overall approval stood at 32%.

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are being contested on Tuesday, with the results determining control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s term.

Democrats are widely favored to make major gains in the House, but control of the Senate remains more uncertain. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four for a majority.

Polling averages show Democrats narrowly ahead in several key Senate contests, including Texas, Michigan, Ohio, Maine and Alaska, while Iowa remains extremely close. Fresh surveys released Monday showed Democratic candidates leading by six points or more in Maine and Texas and by double digits in Michigan, though several battleground averages remain within only a few points.