Iranian assessments see renewed U.S. war as most likely outcome as political leaders urge military to consider Qatari proposal

Iranian assessments now regard a renewed direct war with the United States as the most likely scenario, even as senior political leaders in Tehran urge the country’s military leadership to engage constructively with a Qatari proposal aimed at ending the conflict, Al Arabiya English reported Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the discussions.

According to the report, President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have advised senior military officials to respond positively to the framework presented by Doha.

The sources said the intervention reflects an effort by Iran’s political leadership to preserve a diplomatic path despite increasingly pessimistic internal assessments about the likelihood of avoiding another round of direct fighting with the United States.

Al Arabiya also reported that Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran specifically to receive Iran’s response to the proposal rather than to conduct another round of substantive negotiations.

That characterization differs somewhat from other reporting on the visit. Reuters said Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran on Monday night for discussions with Araghchi over a version of a draft U.S.-Iran agreement that has been under negotiation for the past eight days.

The diplomatic push comes as Tehran and Washington remain far apart on the sequencing and substance of any agreement. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Iran would reject what it called excessive U.S. demands and insisted Tehran’s conditions must be met before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and nuclear negotiations resume.

Iranian officials have simultaneously warned that further U.S. military action would draw a forceful response, while saying diplomacy remains possible if Washington accepts Tehran’s conditions.

The latest mediation effort follows limited U.S. strikes on Iranian targets around Qeshm Island after Iranian forces used surface-to-air missiles against American assets, according to U.S. officials.