Republicans fear Trump’s 2024 coalition is fracturing as Latino and working-class voters threaten midterm losses

Senior Republicans are increasingly concerned that the coalition that returned President Donald Trump to the White House in 2024 is fracturing ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections, threatening the party in districts that were expected to remain safely Republican, Politico reported.

GOP officials told Politico they are watching for signs that Latino, Black, young and working-class voters who shifted toward Trump two years ago may not turn out for Republican candidates in sufficient numbers without the president himself on the ballot.

The concern is particularly acute in South Texas, where Republicans made major gains among Hispanic voters in 2024 but are now confronting backlash over mass deportations, persistent affordability concerns and higher prices.

House Speaker Mike Johnson is spending Election Day campaigning in the region, including an appearance with Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz in McAllen, as the party fights to preserve gains that have become crucial to its narrow House majority.

Republicans redrew several Texas congressional districts last year with the expectation that Trump’s gains among Latino voters would endure. Instead, races in the region have become considerably more competitive than the party anticipated.

Party officials are also concerned that young men and other working-class voters who supported Trump in 2024 may not participate at the same level in a midterm election, weakening another important component of the president’s electoral coalition.

At the same time, Republican groups have poured millions of dollars into late spending across parts of the South, including Mississippi, South Carolina and Louisiana, as unusually strong Black voter participation increases pressure on GOP candidates in states the party normally expects to control comfortably.

The late defensive moves illustrate the stakes for Republicans as they seek to protect their congressional majorities in an election increasingly shaped by affordability, immigration enforcement and whether Trump’s diverse 2024 coalition can survive when he is not personally on the ballot.