Iran War Accelerates Global Shift to Renewable Energy as Nations Seek to Cut Reliance on Oil and Gas

The war with Iran is accelerating the global shift toward renewable energy, as disruptions to oil and gas supplies push governments to reduce their dependence on imported fuels, according to a new International Energy Agency report released Friday.

The IEA forecasts that global renewable power capacity will increase by nearly 4,800 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, a 57% acceleration compared with the previous six years. Renewables are projected to generate 43% of the world’s electricity by 2031, up from 33% in 2025, with solar power accounting for more than three-quarters of new renewable capacity.

“Today, it’s mainly energy security that is driving renewables’ expansion as more and more countries seek to reduce their exposure to imported fuels,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

The shift is already influencing national energy policies. South Korea is seeking to reach 100 gigawatts of renewable capacity before 2030, ahead of its previous timetable. Egypt has brought forward its target of generating 45% of electricity from renewables from 2035 to 2028 as soaring gas import costs increase pressure on its economy.

China’s solar equipment exports to Africa and Southeast Asia also surged in the first three months after the conflict began, reflecting growing demand for alternatives to imported fossil fuels.

The expansion is particularly significant in emerging economies. For the first time, developing countries outside China are expected to add as much renewable capacity as advanced economies over the forecast period. India is projected to become the world’s second-largest growth market after China.

Europe, however, presents a different picture. Despite higher electricity prices linked to the Middle East conflict, the IEA has found no significant policy shift or measurable acceleration in renewable installations. Supply chain disruptions are also threatening to delay some energy projects in the Middle East.

The agency warned that expanding electricity grids and storage capacity will be essential to accommodate the growth, with 3,000 gigawatts of advanced renewable and storage projects worldwide currently awaiting grid connections.