Former MI6 Chief Richard Moore Warns Xi Could Miscalculate Over Taiwan if West Appears Weak in Ukraine and Iran

Former MI6 chief Richard Moore has warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping could miscalculate over Taiwan if he concludes that the United States and its allies lack the resolve to confront Russia over Ukraine or Iran’s leadership, reinforcing a belief in Western decline. ⠀ Moore made the remarks in a conversation with Anthony Scaramucci at the SALT London conference on November 4. The interview was published on November 9. ⠀ “Xi Jinping is watching very carefully what’s happening in Ukraine. He’s watching what’s happening over Iran,” Moore said. He argued that Beijing could interpret a failure of Western resolve in either conflict as evidence that American power was weakening. ⠀ Such a perception, he warned, might encourage Xi to take risks over Taiwan. Moore stressed, however, that he did not see an immediate move of that kind and was describing the danger of future miscalculation rather than predicting an imminent attack. ⠀ The former intelligence chief argued that resisting Vladimir Putin in Ukraine was essential both to restrain Russia and to influence China’s calculations. “His appetite will grow with the eating if we show a lack of will,” Moore said. ⠀ He also warned that Iran’s government could withstand economic and military pressure longer than expected, making the conflict difficult to resolve quickly. Moore said both the Ukraine and Iran wars risked becoming prolonged crises, increasing the importance of credible deterrence.